Frontiers in Pediatrics (Dec 2024)
Nomogram prediction model for length of hospital stay following laparoscopic appendectomy in pediatric patients: a retrospective study
Abstract
ObjectiveThe aim of this research was to develop and internally validate a nomogram for forecasting the length of hospital stay following laparoscopic appendectomy in pediatric patients diagnosed with appendicitis.MethodsWe developed a prediction model based on a training dataset of 415 pediatric patients with appendicitis, and hospitalization data were collected retrospectively from January 2021 and December 2022. The primary outcome measure in this study was hospital length of stay (LOS), with prolonged LOS defined as admission for a duration equal to or exceeding the 75th percentile of LOS, including the discharge day. Risk factor analysis was conducted through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Based on the regression coefficients, a nomogram prediction model was developed. The discriminative performance of the predicting model was evaluated using the C-index, and an adjusted C-index was computed through bootstrapping validation. Calibration curves were generated to assess the accuracy of the nomogram. Decision curve analysis was conducted to determine the clinical utility of the predicting model.ResultsPredictors contained in the prediction nomogram included Age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein level, operative time, appendiceal fecalith, and drainage tube. The C-index of the prediction nomogram was determined to be 0.873 (95% CI: 0.838–0.908), with a corrected C-index of 0.8625 obtained through bootstrapping validation (1,000 resamples), indicating the model's favorable discrimination. Calibration curves illustrated a strong agreement between predicted and observed outcomes. According to the decision curve analysis of the nomogram, the predictive model demonstrates a net benefit at threshold probabilities exceeding 2%.ConclusionThis nomogram, incorporating variables such as Age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein level, operative time, appendiceal fecalith, and drainage tube, offers a convenient method for assessing the duration of hospitalization in pediatric patients with appendicitis.
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