Level of development and democracy: Latin American exceptionalism, 1945-1996

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between modernization and demo¬cracy for one region of the world, Latin America from 1945 to 1996, on the basis of quantitative data. We make three arguments. First, we show that the level of development had a modest impact on the likelihood of democracy in Latin America for the 1945-1996 period. Democracy in Latin America has survived in the face of a low level of development, and it has faltered des pite moderately high per capita income. Second, we show that per capita income is a markedly worse predictor of democracy in Latin America than in the entire world or in other countries in the same income range. To account for this pattern we identify a distinctive, non-linear functional shape for this relationship in Latin America. Third, we address some potential explanations for this Latin American exceptionalism. No existing structural explanation suffices; this issue merits further exploration in future research.

Keywords

• democracia
• américa latina
• nivel de desarrollo