Estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approach

Abstract

Abstract Most efforts to understand snakebite burden in Nepal have been localized to relatively small areas and focused on humans through epidemiological studies. We present the outcomes of a geospatial analysis of the factors influencing snakebite risk in humans and animals, based on both a national-scale multi-cluster random survey and, environmental, climatic, and socio-economic gridded data for the Terai region of Nepal. The resulting Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation models highlight the importance of poverty as a fundamental risk-increasing factor, augmenting the snakebite odds in humans by 63.9 times. For animals, the minimum temperature of the coldest month was the most influential covariate, increasing the snakebite odds 23.4 times. Several risk hotspots were identified along the Terai, helping to visualize at multiple administrative levels the estimated population numbers exposed to different probability risk thresholds in 1 year. These analyses and findings could be replicable in other countries and for other diseases.