Application Deep Learning to Predict Crypto Currency Prices and their Relationship to Market Adequacy (Applied Research Bitcoin as an Example)

Abstract

redicting currency rates is important, for everyone who is trading and trying to build an investment portfolio from a range of crypto currencies. It is not subject to the same restrictions as fiat currencies. In this study, we seek to predict the exchange rate of BIT-COIN against the US dollar. The short-term data (365 observations) is processed using the LSTM model as one of the neural network models. Modeling is conducted by training a sample size of 67%, taking into account sharp fluctuations in the price of trade and a certain level of market efficiency. The GARCH model is used to select appropriate historical periods for how the LSTM model works and to test proficiency at the weak, semi-strong, and strong levels. The data series obtained from the website (Investing.com) have been processed. The researchers have found that the performance of the neural network improves as the EPOCH value increases with a training (research) period of 50 days before, which is consistent with the results of the proficiency test at the weak level. It agrees with the results of the sufficiency test at the weak level, which indicates that in the case under study (the Bitcoin market is effective at the weak level). It is advised that crypto-currency investors rely more on the historical trend of the price of the currency than on its current price, taking advantage of the artificial neural network model (LSTM) in dealing with little data of high volatility.

Keywords

• cryptocurrency
• garch model
• deep learning
• artificial neural networks
• lstm model