Impact of Weather Covariates on Wildfire in Tanjung Puting National Park

Abstract

This paper explores wildfire modeling based on meteorological variables for Tanjung Puting National Park, located on the island of Borneo. A separable model is developed for predicting daily wildfire burn area using variables such as temperature, sea level pressure, humidity, precipitation, visibility, and wind speed. Each component in the model is estimated using kernel smoothing and maximum likelihood methods. The data are shown to be largely compatible with the separable model, suggesting that the relationship between wildfire burn area and any of these weather variables in particular does not appear to change significantly depending on the values of the other weather variables. The analysis appears to confirm the findings of previous studies on wildfire in Southern California which indicate that wildfire hazard may be suitably estimated using a simple multiplicative model where the impact of each weather covariate is estimated separately.