Assessing the Stationarity of Per Capita Electricity Consumption: Time Series Analysis in ASEAN Countries

Abstract

The stationarity of per capita electricity consumption has become a critical subject of research and policy consideration, with a wealth of literature exploring this aspect using diverse methodologies. This paper, however, differentiates itself by focusing exclusively on electricity consumption, a pivotal energy form, within the context of the ASEAN region. The stationarity or nonstationarity of electricity consumption has significant implications for energy management and policy formulation. A Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) unit root test with structural breaks was applied to data spanning from 1971 to 2014 for nine ASEAN nations, shedding light on distinct patterns. The majority of countries, including Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Cambodia, exhibited nonstationary electricity consumption, suggesting susceptibility to prolonged fluctuations influenced by various structural factors. In contrast, Brunei displayed stationary electricity consumption, implying temporary effects of energy demand shocks. The policy implications are substantial. Nonstationary countries require flexible energy policies that address both immediate and long-term fluctuations in electricity consumption, especially in sectors like manufacturing, healthcare, and education, heavily reliant on electricity. Conversely, stable countries like Brunei should continuously monitor energy trends to make proactive policy adjustments.

Keywords

• Electricity Consumption, Structural Break, Unit Root, ASEAN