Association of meteorological parameters with intussusception in children aged under 2 years: results from a multisite bidirectional surveillance over 7 years in India

Abstract

Objectives The study aimed to document the association between intussusception in Indian children and meteorological parameters and examine regional variations.Design A bidirectional (retrospective and prospective) surveillance between July 2010 and September 2017.Setting At 20 hospitals in India, retrospective case record review during July 2010 and March 2016 and prospective surveillance during April 2016 and September 2017 were performed.Participants 2161 children aged 2–24 months with first intussusception episode were included.Interventions The monthly mean meteorological parameters (temperature, sunshine, rainfall, humidity and wind speed) for the study sites were collected.Methods The association between monthly intussusception cases and meteorological parameters was examined at pooled, regional and site levels using Pearson (r) and Spearman’s rank-order (ρ) correlation, factorial analysis of variance, and Poisson regression or negative binomial regression analyses.Results The intussusception cases were highest in summer and lowest in autumn seasons. Pearson correlation analysis showed that temperature (r=0.056; p<0.05), wind speed (r=0.134; p<0.01) and humidity (r=0.075; p<0.01) were associated with monthly intussusception cases. Spearman’s rank-order correlation analysis found that temperature (ρ=0.049; p<0.05), wind speed (ρ=0.096; p<0.01) and sunshine (ρ=0.051; p<0.05) were associated with monthly intussusception cases. Poisson regression analysis resulted that monthly intussusception case was associated with rising temperature (North region, p<0.01 and East region, p<0.05), sunshine (North region, p<0.01), humidity (East region, p<0.01) and wind speed (East region, p<0.01). Factorial analysis of variance revealed a significant seasonal difference in intussusception cases for pooled level (p<0.05), 2–6 months age group (p<0.05) and North region (p<0.01). Significant differences in intussusception cases between summer and autumn seasons were observed for pooled (p<0.01), children aged 2–6 months (p<0.05) and 7–12 months (p<0.05).Conclusions Significant correlations between intussusception cases and temperature, humidity, and wind speed were observed at pooled and regional level in India. A peak in summer months was noted, which may be used for prediction, early detection and referral for appropriate management of intussusception.