Heliyon (Feb 2024)
SEIR-diffusion modeling and stability analysis of supply chain finance based on blockchain technology
Abstract
Inadequate information sharing and difficult information diffusion are the main factors that cause upstream and downstream enterprises to default on supply chain finance. Blockchain technology, which exploits distributed storage and a consensus mechanism, can provide effective solutions to overcome these problems such as information sharing. When blockchain technology is adopted by the enterprises that comprise the supply chain finance business, this technology shows a diffusion trend. As a result, the decision pertaining to the application of novel technologies is affected. Therefore, to investigate the diffusion mechanism pertaining to the blockchain technology that is applied in supply chain finance, the study exploited the idea of a class of SEIR infectious disease models, and built a blockchain model that considers the supply chain financial system. Besides, the study verifies the stability of the model by constructing a Lyapunov function. The results indicate that the basic reproduction number determines the proliferation of the blockchain technology. When the basic reproduction number is less than 1, the proliferation of the blockchain technology that is applied in supply chain finance system would terminate. By contrast, when the basic reproduction number is greater than 1, during the average infection period, the number of non-adopting enterprises that accept the blockchain technology becomes greater than 1, which can maintain a continuous impact on supply chain finance system. Over time, the number of enterprises that accept blockchain technology tends to be stable. Through numerical simulations that consider the influencing parameters pertaining to the basic regeneration number, which has important effect on blockchain technology diffusion, we enlarge the diffusion efficiency and increase the transfer rate of potential on-chain enterprises or decrease the default exit rate. As a result, we facilitate the diffusion of blockchain technology in the system.
