Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Temperature in Sanandaj City

Abstract

The GCM models are widely used to assess the effects of global climate change, but they are not accurate enough to assess climate change locally and regionally. In this study, using the statistical model of SDSM in the study area, the output of the CanESM2 model was downscaled and compared with data from Sanandaj synoptic station, which has long-term statistics. Then, considering the release scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the future periods of 2025-2050 and 2051-2075, the effect of climate change on the temperature of Sanandaj city was evaluated. The minimum and maximum daily temperatures for the base period of 1979-2005 were considered as the input of the model. The results of the SDSM model show that the average monthly minimum temperature drops below zero for the periods 2025-2050 and 2051-2075 and decreases under all three scenarios, and when the average air temperature is less than zero for both future periods, it increases under all three scenarios. The average maximum temperature for the next periods is 2025-2050 and 2051-2075 and under all three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 increase and this increase is mostly related to the warm months of the year. According to the obtained results, Sanandaj city will have warmer days and colder nights in the future.

Keywords

• downscaling
• general circulation model
• global warming
• sdsm model