The impact of air pollution on the transmission of pulmonary tuberculosis

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the air pollution and tuberculosis cases and its prediction in Jiangsu, China by using the time-series analysis method, and find that the seasonal ARIMA(1, 1, 0)×(0, 1, 1)12 model is the preferred model for predicting the TB cases in Jiangsu, China. Furthermore, we evaluate the relationship between AQI, PM2.5, PM10 and the number of TB cases, and find that the prediction accuracy of the ARIMA model is improved by adding monthly PM2.5 with 0-month lag as an external variable, i.e., ARIMA(1, 1, 0)×(0, 1, 1)12+PM2.5. The results show that ARIMAX model can be a useful tool for predicting TB cases in Jiangsu, China, and it can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of TB.

Keywords

• tuberculosis
• air pollution
• time series analysis
• arima model
• prediction