Possible Effects of Greenhouse Gases to Ozone Profiles and DNA Active UV-B Irradiance at Ground Level
Kostas Eleftheratos,
John Kapsomenakis,
Christos S. Zerefos,
Alkiviadis F. Bais,
Ilias Fountoulakis,
Martin Dameris,
Patrick Jöckel,
Amund S. Haslerud,
Sophie Godin-Beekmann,
Wolfgang Steinbrecht,
Irina Petropavlovskikh,
Colette Brogniez,
Thierry Leblanc,
J. Ben Liley,
Richard Querel,
Daan P. J. Swart
Affiliations
Kostas Eleftheratos
Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15784 Athens, Greece
John Kapsomenakis
Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, 10680 Athens, Greece
Christos S. Zerefos
Center for Environmental Effects on Health, Biomedical Research Foundation of the Academy of Athens, 11527 Athens, Greece
Alkiviadis F. Bais
Department of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Ilias Fountoulakis
Department of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Martin Dameris
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Patrick Jöckel
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Amund S. Haslerud
Cicero Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), 0318 Oslo, Norway
Sophie Godin-Beekmann
Laboratoire Atmosphère Milieux Observations Spatiales, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 78284 Guyancourt, France
Wolfgang Steinbrecht
Deutscher Wetterdienst, 82383 Hohenpeißenberg, Germany
Irina Petropavlovskikh
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
Colette Brogniez
Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 8518 - Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique, F-59000 Lille, France
Thierry Leblanc
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Wrightwood, CA 92397, USA
J. Ben Liley
National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA), 9377 Lauder, New Zealand
Richard Querel
National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA), 9377 Lauder, New Zealand
Daan P. J. Swart
Center for Environmental Quality, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
In this paper, we compare model calculations of ozone profiles and their variability for the period 1998 to 2016 with satellite and lidar profiles at five ground-based stations. Under the investigation is the temporal impact of the stratospheric halogen reduction (chemical processes) and increase in greenhouse gases (i.e., global warming) on stratospheric ozone changes. Attention is given to the effect of greenhouse gases on ultraviolet-B radiation at ground level. Our chemistry transport and chemistry climate models (Oslo CTM3 and EMAC CCM) indicate that (a) the effect of halogen reduction is maximized in ozone recovery at 1−7 hPa and observed at all lidar stations; and (b) significant impact of greenhouse gases on stratospheric ozone recovery is predicted after the year 2050. Our study indicates that solar ultraviolet-B irradiance that produces DNA damage would increase after the year 2050 by +1.3% per decade. Such change in the model is driven by a significant decrease in cloud cover due to the evolution of greenhouse gases in the future and an insignificant trend in total ozone. If our estimates prove to be true, then it is likely that the process of climate change will overwhelm the effect of ozone recovery on UV-B irradiance in midlatitudes.
