A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Multistep Prediction Method Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory Model

Abstract

Timely and accurate traffic prediction information is essential for advanced traffic management system (ATMS) and advanced traveler information system (ATIS). Because of the characteristics of nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and randomness, short-term traffic flow prediction could be still a challenging task. In this study, a hybrid short-term traffic flow multistep prediction method is proposed by combining the variational mode decomposition (VMD) algorithm and long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Firstly, the VMD algorithm is employed to decompose the original traffic flow data into a series of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components. Secondly, different LSTM models are established to predict different IMF components. For each prediction model, one-step to three-step predictions are carried out. Finally, the component prediction results are aggregated to obtain the final traffic flow multistep prediction values. The prediction performance of the proposed hybrid model is investigated using inductive loop data measured from the north-south viaduct expressway in Shanghai. The experiment results show that (1) VMD algorithm could effectively avoid the problems of endpoint effects and modal aliasing, and the decomposition effect is better than empirical mode decomposition algorithm and wavelet decomposition algorithm; (2) among all the involved methods, the proposed hybrid model is more effective and robust in extracting the trend information, which has the best multistep prediction performance.