Evolutionary trends in fertility among Chinese women, 1990–2015

Abstract

Abstract Background Under the one-child policy of birth control, total fertility rates (TFRs) declined rapidly among women in China. TFRs dropped from 2.29 in 1990 to 1.18 in 2010 and to 1.05 in 2015. However, little is known about the evolution of fertility patterns in China during 1990–2015. Methods We used population data from 1990 to 2015 and applied age–period–cohort (APC) models to examine temporal changes and used regression models to analyze the effect of education on fertility across periods and cohorts in China. Results Age effects assume an inverted U-shaped curve, which increase and then decline across ages, with a peak value in age groups 20–24 or 25–29. Period effects show a U-shaped curve, which first decline and then increase. Cohort effects show an inverted U-shaped plus V-shaped curve, which first increase, then decline and rebound with different age effects and period effects. The APC effect curves of all-order births are similar to those of first birth, but with different magnitudes. Conclusions We revealed the evolutionary trends in fertility patterns among Chinese women from 1990 to 2015. The one-child policy exerted a crowding out effect on education. Even if the well-educated women had an intense fertility intention, the fertility policy offset their desire for more children.

Keywords

• Fertility pattern
• Age–period–cohort analysis
• Educational attainment
• Crowding out effect