System of Models of Forecasting of Social and Economic Development of Regions of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

Abstract

Currently, the role of forecasting and modeling is increasing significantly, due to the introduction of project management. Forecasts are developed at different levels of governance, are the basis for compiling regional budgets, allow the variable to anticipate future developments and to timely mitigate negative effects on the territory. Despite this, some areas of our country still do not have forecasts and models of socio-economic development. One of the strategic priorities of the Russian Federation is the development and development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation for the balanced regional development of the country. For three groups of the selected Arctic regions developed their own indicators to build the most reliable and high-quality forecasts of socio-economic development. The indicators of development of the Arctic socio-ecological and economic systems are determined: real GRP (in prices of one year), average annual population and emissions of pollutants into the air from stationary sources. The paper proposes a system of forecasting models of socio-economic development of the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, which will build the most reliable and high-quality forecasts, which in turn can significantly improve the efficiency of public administration and spending of funds.

Keywords

• models
• forecasting
• socio-economic development
• arctic zone of the russian federation