Retooling local transportation financing in a new mobility future

Abstract

Federal, state, and local governments in the United States are highly dependent on motor fuel taxes, vehicle registration, licensing, and parking and traffic citation revenue for transportation. The three revolutions of electrification, automation, and sharing pose threats to major revenue sources for transportation. Automation is expected to intensify the trends in revenue started by transportation network companies (TNCs.) Electrification is expected to impact tax receipts from gasoline and diesel. Shared mobility is becoming more common either through individual rides (e.g., UberPool) or sharing use and/or ownership of a vehicle (e.g., ZipCar). Automation and sharing of vehicles through fleets are expected to impact registration, licensing, parking, and citation revenue. This study estimates revenue loss attributed to new mobility and evaluating revenue sources to fund transportation in a new mobility future. In this study, we use case studies of five Oregon cities ranging in size from 10,000 to 500,000 to: 1) describe how transportation is currently funded; 2) identify scenarios of electrification, automation, and sharing; 3) apply scenarios to estimate revenue loss; and 4) describe how revenue loss varies by city revenue structure. We relied on budget data from local government budgets and created a spreadsheet tool to analyze revenue impacts. We base our scenarios on the trends in autonomous vehicles predicted by various industry sources. The results of this study have important consequences for practitioners and policymakers. We recommend that policymakers adopt new revenue streams alongside incentivizing or regulating new technology. Further, we recommend that practitioners collect data and monitor revenue impacts as new technology is adopted.

Keywords

• New mobility
• Transportation finance
• Local revenues