Integrating Remote Sensing Methods and Fire Simulation Models to Estimate Fire Hazard in a South-East Mediterranean Protected Area

Abstract

Unlike low intensity fire which promotes landscape heterogeneity and important ecosystem services, large high-intensity wildfires constitute a significant destructive factor despite the increased amount of resources allocated to fire suppression and the improvement of firefighting tactics and levels of organization. Wildfires also affect properties, while an increasing number of fatalities are also associated with wildfires. It is now widely accepted that an effective wildfire management strategy can no longer rely on fire suppression alone. Scientific advances on fire behavior simulation and the increasing availability of remote sensing data, along with advanced systems of fire detection can significantly reduce fire hazards. In the current study remote sensing data and methods, and fire behavior simulation models are integrated to assess the fire hazard in a protected area of the southeast Mediterranean region and its surroundings. A spatially explicit fire hazard index was generated by combining fire intensity estimations and proxies of fire ignition probability. The results suggest that more than 50% of the study area, and the great majority of the protected area, is facing an extremely high hazard for a high-intensity fire. Pine forest formations, characterized by high flammability, low canopy base height and a dense shrub understory are facing the most critical hazard. The results are discussed in relation to the need for adopting an alternative wildfire management strategy.

Keywords

• wildfire risk
• object-oriented image analysis
• Sentinel-2
• fire behavior
• flammap
• wildfire management