Construction and Validation of a Prediction Model for Identifying Clinical Risk Factors of Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis in Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma

Abstract

Yizhou Huang,1,* Yu Min,2,* Gangyi Yang,1 Hanghang Wang,3 Guobing Yin,2 Lili Zhang1 1Department of Endocrinology, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400010, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Breast and Thyroid Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400010, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400010, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Lili Zhang, Department of Endocrinology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 74, Linjiang Road, Yuzhong Dist, Chongqing, 404100, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected]; [email protected] Guobing Yin, Department of Breast and Thyroid Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 74, Linjiang Road, Yuzhong Dist, Chongqing, 404100, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected]: Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is a rare but highly invasive malignancy, especially in terms of cervical lymph node metastasis. However, the role of prophylactic lateral lymph node dissection (LLND) is still controversial. We hereby aim to explore the risk factors of lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in patients with MTC to guide clinical practice.Patients and Methods: The clinicopathological characteristics of patients with MTC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program and the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were reviewed and analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistics regression analyses were used to screen the risk factors of LLNM in patients with MTC.Results: Four variables, including male gender, multifocality, extrathyroidal invasion (EI), and large tumor size (all p < 0.05), were identified as potential independent factors of LLNM in patients with MTC. Based on these results, an individualized prediction model was subsequently developed with a satisfied C-index of 0.798, supported by both internal and external validation with a C-index of 0.816 and 0.896, respectively. We also performed the decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curve, which indicated a remarkable agreement in our model for predicting the risk of LLNM.Conclusion: We determined that various clinical characteristics, male gender, multifocality, EI, and large tumor size, were significantly associated with LLNM in patients with MTC. Thus, a validated prediction model utilizing readily available variables was successfully established to help clinicians make individualized clinical decisions on MTC management, especially regarding whether the LLND is necessary for patients with clinical negative lateral lymph node involvement and the frequency of follow-up without LLND.Keywords: medullary thyroid carcinoma, lateral lymph node metastasis, risk factors, SEER, predicting model

Keywords

• medullary thyroid carcinoma
• lateral lymph node metastasis
• risk factors
• seer
• predicting model