Foresighting the Function of Small Towns in the Urban System of Central Area of Fars Province up to 2031

Abstract

The function of small towns and their development depend on various factors that should be considered in their planning. This shows the necessity and importance of futurism in the function of small towns in the settlement system. The main purpose of this research is to foresight the functions of small towns in the urban system of Fars central area up to 2031. This study tries to identify the key factors affecting the functioning of small towns in the urban system of the Fars central area and to draw possible scenarios for the next 10 years, predicting the overall trend. This research is practical in purpose, a combination of documentary and survey methods in terms of data collection, analytical in terms of method, and futuristic in terms of time. According to the nature of the research, structural analysis and scenario analysis methods were used in MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. The results showed that 15 key factors affect the functioning of small towns in the study area. These 15 factors lead to 45 possible futures based on scenario analysis. After analyzing the possible situations, 12 scenarios with the highest compatibility were extracted, among which the future status of small towns in the urban system of the Fars central area in most scenarios will continue the current situation with a favorable trend.

Keywords

• urban functions
• urban system
• small towns
• foresighting
• fars central area