Risk assessment of hazardous abrasion and landslide processes in the coastal zone of the Azov Sea

Abstract

The methodology was developed and the socio-economic risk of the manifestation of abrasion and landslide processes in the coastal zone of the Azov Sea was evaluated. The methodology includes assessing the degree of danger of coastal processes and determining possible material losses. The numerical index of socio-economic risk is calculated as the product of point estimates of these parameters. The main factors of dangerous coastal processes formation have been established, according to their similar combination in the coastal zone of the Azov Sea, 42 functional areas and the impact zone of hazardous abrasion and landslide processes predicted for a 20-year period have been identified. In the forecast zone, 112 socio-economic objects were identified that are subject to the influence of dangerous abrasion and landslide processes. For these socio-economic objects, using the standard set of tools of the public GIS service “Cadastral map of Rosreestr”, an enlarged calculation of possible economic damage has been made. The highest values of the socio-economic risk of the manifestation of abrasion and landslide processes in the coastal zone of the Azov Sea fall on abrasion and abrasion-landslide sections of the coast with a high rate of abrasion, a large number of capital construction projects and a high value of material losses.