Impact of climate and host availability on future distribution of Colorado potato beetle

Abstract

Abstract Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB) is a devastating invasive pest of potato both in its native North America and now across Eurasia. It also damages eggplant, tomato and feeds on several wild species in the Solanaceae, such as S. eleagnifolium and S. rostratum Dunal (SR). Since first categorized as a pest in 1864, CPB has spread rapidly across North America, Europe and Asia. In light of its invasiveness and economic importance, it is necessary to study how climate change and host availability may alter the distribution of the CPB. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models were used to anticipate global range expansion as influenced by environmental conditions, and by the possibility of cooperative invasion of CPB and its wild host SR. The results indicate that both CPB and SR can occupy warm areas of North America, South Africa, Europe, China, and Australia. Future climate conditions may promote CPB expansion into northern regions and SR into the circumpolar latitudes. The existing range and continued spread of SR may also assist the global expansion of CPB. Future management of this pest should consider the impacts of global climate change and host availability on its potential global distribution.