Enhanced multi-layer perceptron for CO2 emission prediction with worst moth disrupted moth fly optimization (WMFO)

Abstract

This study introduces the Worst Moth Disruption Strategy (WMFO) to enhance the Moth Fly Optimization (MFO) algorithm, specifically addressing challenges related to population stagnation and low diversity. The WMFO aims to prevent local trapping of moths, fostering improved global search capabilities. Demonstrating a remarkable efficiency of 66.6 %, WMFO outperforms the MFO on CEC15 benchmark test functions. The Friedman and Wilcoxon tests further confirm WMFO's superiority over state-of-the-art algorithms. Introducing a hybrid model, WMFO-MLP, combining WMFO with a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), facilitates effective parameter tuning for carbon emission prediction, achieving an outstanding total accuracy of 97.8 %. Comparative analysis indicates that the MLP-WMFO model surpasses alternative techniques in precision, reliability, and efficiency. Feature importance analysis reveals that variables such as Oil Efficiency and Economic Growth significantly impact MLP-WMFO's predictive power, contributing up to 40 %. Additionally, Gas Efficiency, Renewable Energy, Financial Risk, and Political Risk explain 26.5 %, 13.6 %, 8 %, and 6.5 %, respectively. Finally, WMFO-MLP performance offers advancements in optimization and predictive modeling with practical applications in carbon emission prediction.

Keywords

• Moth fly optimization
• Multi-layer perceptron
• Machine learning
• Optimization carbon emission