Constructing a risk prediction model for anastomotic leakage after esophageal cancer resection

Abstract

Objective The purpose of this study was to investigate a newly constructed risk prediction model for anastomotic leakage after esophageal cancer resection. Methods A retrospective survey of 205 patients who underwent esophageal cancer resection was conducted using a self-designed questionnaire. The influencing factors were explored by single factor analysis, and a logistic regression analysis was performed to construct the prediction equation. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the model. Results The incidence of anastomotic leakage after esophageal cancer resection was 11.73%. There were five independent risk factors entered into the regression equation. The risk prediction equation was Z = 0.108 × age + 2.011 × preoperative chemotherapy history + 3.007 ×incision redness/exudation + 2.632 × pleural effusion + 1.934 × increased white blood cell count − 12.304. According to the receiver operating characteristic curve test, the area under the curve was 0.946, the sensitivity was 0.833, the specificity was 0.912, and the Youden index was 0.745. Conclusion The risk model of anastomotic leakage after esophageal cancer resection had a good predictive effect that was of significance for guiding clinical observation and early-screening.