Climate warming contributes to the record-shattering 2022 Pakistan rainfall

Abstract

Abstract A sequence of torrential rainstorms pounded Pakistan in the summer of 2022, shattering records by massive margins (7 sigma). The severe socioeconomic damages underscore the urgency of identifying its dynamic drivers and relationship with human-induced climate change. Here, we find that the downpours were primarily initiated by the synoptic low-pressure systems, whose intensity and longevity far exceeded their counterparts in history as fueled by a historically-high cross-equatorial moisture transport over the Arabian Sea. The moisture transport has been trending upward since the 1960s and, in 2022, along with the anomalous easterly moisture influx caused by the combination of La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events, created a corridor of heavy rainfall extending from central India toward southern Pakistan. While it is not yet established whether the observed trend of the cross-equatorial moisture transport has exceeded natural variability, model-based analysis confirms that it is consistent with the fingerprint of anthropogenic climate warming and will raise the likelihood of such rare events substantially in the coming decades.