A climatological assessment of balancing effects and shortfall risks of photovoltaics and wind energy in Germany and Europe

Abstract

With an increased share of solar and wind energy e.g. in the German and European energy systems it is becoming increasingly important to analyze the impact of weather variability on the reliability of the energy production. In this study, we calculate solar PV and wind power capacity factors using two recently developed climatological datasets that provide information with high spatial and temporal details on the continental (European) scale and are of sufficient length for assessments at climatological time scales: Surface radiation derived from meteorological satellites (SARAH-2) and wind speed from a high-resolution regional reanalysis (COSMO-REA6). Balancing effects are analysed: On average, the seasonal cycles of PV and wind power production complement each other in Germany as well as in Europe. The frequency of events with a risk of low electricity generation is analyzed under different assumptions. When using wind energy over German land areas as a reference case, the results illustrate that the number of low production events is reduced when Germany's Exclusive Economic Zone is included into the analysis, or when a combined system of PV and wind energy is considered. A European-wide analysis also leads to a distinct reduction of such events.