Cotton Yield and Climate Change Adaptation in Pakistan: Application of Multinomial Endogenous Switching Regression Model

Abstract

Purpose:Cotton is the backbone of Pakistan economy, as country is the 4th largest producer of cotton in the world. Despite this importance there is steep decline in cotton production over time due to climate change. The need to evaluate the potential of adaptation in improving cotton yield has necessitated this study. Design/Methodology/Approach:This study is based on the farm household survey of four cotton producing districts, two from each Punjab and Sindh that were purposively selected from heat stress regions of Pakistan. Data were analyzed through multinomial endogenous switching regression model and treatment effect framework. Findings:Farm management practices were evaluated for their significance in reducing adverse impacts of climatic extremes on cotton yield. Adaptation in the combination of first three strategies observed to be the most successful strategies in increasing yield. Implications/Originality/Value:For effective adaptation access to credit and extension, education, farming experience, and sources of information revealed to be important predictors

Keywords

• Adaptation
• Climate Change
• Cotton farming
• Multinomial Endogenous Switching
• Treatment effect