A Risk-Structured Model for the Transmission Dynamics of Anthrax Disease

Abstract

Anthrax, a zoonotic disease with serious public health consequences, has been the subject of rigorous mathematical and statistical modeling to better understand its dynamics and to devise effective control techniques. In this study, we propose a novel mathematical risk-structured model for anthrax disease spread that includes both qualitative and quantitative evaluations. Our research focuses on the complex interplay between host–anthrax interactions and zoonotic transmission. Our mathematical approach incorporates bifurcation analysis and stability considerations. We investigate the dynamic behavior of the proposed model under various settings, shedding light on the important parameters that determine anthrax transmission and persistence. The normalized forward sensitivity analysis method is used to determine the parameters that are relevant to reducing Rc and, by extension, disease spread. Through scenario simulation of our model, we identify intervention techniques, such as enlightenment of the populace, that will effectively minimize disease transmission. Our findings provide insights into anthrax epidemiology and emphasize the importance of effective disease management. Bifurcation investigations reveal the existence and stability of numerous equilibria, allowing for a better understanding of the behavior of the system under various scenarios. This study adds to the field of anthrax modeling by providing a foundation for informed decision-making regarding public health measures. The use of a mathematical modeling approach improves our ability to anticipate and control anthrax epidemics, ultimately helping to protect both human and animal populations.

Keywords

• anthrax
• zoonotic disease
• sensitivity analysis
• bifurcation theory
• stability analysis