Incorporating climate velocity into the design of climate‐smart networks of marine protected areas

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is redistributing terrestrial and marine biodiversity and altering fundamental ecological interactions. To conserve biodiversity and promote its long‐term persistence, protected areas should account for the ecological implications of species’ redistribution. Data paucity across many systems means that achieving this goal requires generic metrics that act as proxies for likely responses of multiple taxa to climate change. Climate velocity is one such metric, representing the potential speed and direction of species’ range shifts. Here, we explore three approaches for incorporating climate velocity into the design of marine protected areas and demonstrate their application in the Mediterranean Sea. Our methods are designed to meet the climate‐smart adaptation strategy of protecting climate refugia by selecting slow‐moving climate velocity areas. For our case study, we found that incorporating climate velocity as a cost measure in Marxan best selects slower moving areas, which are robust indicators of climate refugia. However, this approach is unable to accommodate socio‐economic cost data and is thus impractical. Incorporating climate velocity as a boundary or as a feature selects slower moving areas with a lower socio‐economic cost. We recommend incorporating velocity as a boundary, where possible because it is a more flexible approach. The boundary approach considers the climate velocity of all planning units, rather than being limited to a subjective classification of ‘slow‐moving’ planning units when treated as a feature. However, further assessment is required. For different planning scales and for grid structures other than squares, the relative performance of incorporating climate velocity as a boundary or as a feature might vary among case studies. This work presents simple and practical ways of including climate velocity in conservation plans to achieve the key climate‐smart objective of protecting climate refugia, thereby enhancing ecological resilience. Our methods are widely applicable, encouraging researchers and practitioners to advance the field and deliver networks of climate‐smart protected areas by 2030.

Keywords

• climate adaptation
• conservation planning
• marine reserves
• marine spatial planning
• post‐2020 conservation targets
• spatial prioritization