Population Trends in the World and the Asia Pacific Region

Abstract

This presentation explores the population trends in both the global and Asia-Pacific regions, examining the underlying factors that influence population growth and population age structure. The presentation highlights the importance of understanding fertility rates and their implications to population ageing, particularly in the context of the Asia-Pacific region. Fertility rates have declined in all regions of the world, however there is still substantial diversity across the globe. In high- and middle-income countries, fertility is now at low levels, some at extremely low levels. In low-income countries, the levels of fertility are more variable, with some countries seeing substantial decline, while others have declined, but at a slower rate. Because of low fertility, some countries have seen substantial population ageing in recent decades, and in the absence of migration, are experiencing depopulation. Other countries, buoyed by their migration policies, are ageing at a slower rate, and do not face the implications of a declining population. In the Asia-Pacific region there are substantial demographic shifts underway. The population has been declining in Japan for over 10 years, and is also declining in South Korea and most recently, China. All populations have very low fertility rates, with South Korea the lowest in the world, at 0.8 in 2021. Japan and South Korea also have very low immigration rates. In 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous country. While most regions of the world now have low population growth, populations in Africa are still growing rapidly, fuelled by a young population structure. This provides the region with a potential ‘demographic dividend’ which can contribute to economic opportunities. By outlining the drivers of population change, their implications, policy responses, and future challenges, this presentation will provide insights into the complexities of demographic shifts in today’s world.