Role of Clinical Characteristics and Biomarkers at Admission to Predict One-Year Mortality in Elderly Patients with Pneumonia

Abstract

Background: A hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia results in a decrease in long-term survival in elderly patients. We assessed biomarkers at admission to predict one-year mortality in a cohort of elderly patients with pneumonia. Methods: A prospective observational study included patients >65 years hospitalized with pneumonia. Assessment of PSI, CURB-65, and biomarkers (C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), NT-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), interleukin (IL)-6 and -8, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), serum amyloid A (SAA), neopterin (NP), myeloperoxidase (MPO), anti-apolipoprotein A-1 IgG (anti-apoA-1), and anti-phosphorylcholine IgM (anti-PC IgM)) was used to calculate prognostic values for one-year mortality using ROC curve analyses. Post hoc optimal cutoffs with corresponding sensitivity (SE) and specificity (SP) were determined using the Youden index. Results: A total of 133 patients were included (median age 83 years [IQR: 78–89]). Age, dementia, BMI, NT-proBNP (AUROC 0.65 (95% CI: 0.55–0.77)), and IL-8 (AUROC 0.66 (95% CI: 0.56–0.75)) were significantly associated with mortality, with NT-proBNP (HR 1.01 (95% CI 1.00–1.02) and BMI (HR 0.92 (95% CI 0.85–1.000) being independent of age, gender, comorbidities, and PSI with Cox regression. At the cutoff value of 2200 ng/L, NT-proBNP had 67% sensitivity and 70% specificity. PSI and CURB-65 were not associated with mortality. Conclusions: NT-proBNP levels upon admission and BMI displayed the highest prognostic accuracy for one-year mortality and may help clinicians to identify patients with poor long-term prognosis.

Keywords

• elderly patients
• one-year mortality
• biomarkers