Un papy-boom aura lieu, même si l’espérance de vie ne progressait plus

Abstract

If recent demographic trends continue, there will be 73.6m inhabitants in mainland France in 2060, i.e. 11.8m more than in 2007. The number of people of 60 years old and over will increase the most, reaching 23.6m in 2060, i.e. 10.4m more than in 2007. In the short-term, population trends and age structure will continue to depend on the past. In particular, the baby-boom of the years 1946-74 has led to a substantial increase in the number of elderly people, a phenomenon visible in the country's population pyramid today. Even if we assume that life expectancy remains at its 2007 level, the increase in the number of people of 60 years old and over will continue until 2035, when all the baby-boomers will have turned 60. In the longer term, population trends and age structure will depend on projection hypothesis, and for the elderly in particular, on developments regarding life expectancy. All European countries are facing a growing population, even though this trend is rather less marked in France than elsewhere.

Keywords

• France
• demography
• population projections
• population pyramid
• ageing
• fertility