A nonparametric mixed exponentially weighted moving average-moving average control chart with an application to gas turbines.

Abstract

This study aims to develop a nonparametric mixed exponentially weighted moving average-moving average (NPEWMA-MA) sign control chart for monitoring shifts in process location, particularly when the distribution of a critical quality characteristic is either unknown or non-normal. In literature, the variance expression of the mixed exponentially weighted moving average-moving average (EWMA-MA) statistic is calculated by allowing sequential moving averages to be independent, and thus the exclusion of covariance terms results in an inaccurate variance expression. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the EWMA-MA control chart deteriorates when the distribution of a critical quality characteristic deviates from normality. The proposed NPEWMA-MA sign control chart addresses these by utilizing the corrected variance of the EWMA-MA statistic and incorporating the nonparametric sign test into the EWMA-MA charting structure. The chart integrates the moving average (MA) statistic into the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) statistic. The EWMA-MA charting statistic assigns more weight to recent w samples, with weights for previous observations decling exponentially. Monte Carlo simulations assess the chart's performance using various run length (RL) characteristics such as average run length (ARL), standard deviation of run length (SDRL), and median run length (MRL). Additional measures for overall performance include the average extra quadratic loss (AEQL) and relative mean index (RMI). The proposed NPEWMA-MA sign control chart demonstrates superior performance compared to existing nonparametric control charts across different symmetrical and asymmetric distributions. It efficiently detects process shifts, as validated through both a simulated study and a real-life example from a combined cycle power plant.