Agricultural and Resource Economics (Sep 2020)
Analysis and forecasting of Ukrainian agrarian exports to the EU countries
Abstract
Purpose. The purpose of the paper is to study the state, perspective directions of Ukrainian exports of agricultural products and the introduction of effective forecasting using the method of mathematical modeling of a continuous system of aperiodic components. Methodology / approach. In the process of research, the fundamental provisions of modern economic science were used in relation to the groups of factors influencing the resulting indicators of export, foreign trade trends, methods of statistical analysis to assess the weight of factors influencing the resulting function, as well as modern mathematical methods for forecasting of agrarian exports were implemented. Results. The application of the developed mathematical model and the algorithm based on it, allowed to study the situation with the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU, to identify trends specific to individual countries and the EU market as a whole, to assess the opportunities and prospects of niche markets, expansion nomenclature of export goods. Prognoses were given both on the export prospects of individual goods, product groups, and on the volume of deliveries to the EU. The use of factor analysis for forecasting of export deliveries allowed us to assess the impact of each of the factors and limit their amount. Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, the method of mathematical modeling of a continuous system based on changes in its aperiodic components was used for efficient and relevant forecasting of agrarian export volumes. Even the stages of application of this method, in particular, the analysis and prognoses for individual items of the nomenclature of export goods, for individual countries – importers make it possible to represent the situation with agrarian exports more accurately and forecast future supplies. Practical value / importance. The proposed mathematical approach for market analysis and forecasting of markets can be used by both market regulators and producers and exporters of agricultural products. These polynomial equations for analysis and prognostication for individual product groups can be directly used in practice.
