Monitoring river water quality through predictive modeling using artificial neural networks backpropagation

Abstract

Predicting river water quality in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY) is crucial. In this research, we modeled a river water quality prediction system using the artificial neural network (ANN) backpropagation method. Backpropagation is one of the developments of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) network, which can reduce the level of prediction error by adjusting the weights based on the difference in output and the desired target. Water quality parameters included biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS), dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphate, fecal coliforms, and total coliforms. The research object was the upstream, downstream, and middle parts of the Oya River. The data source was secondary data from the DIY Environment and Forestry Service. Data were in the form of time series data for 2013–2023. Descriptive data results showed that the water quality of the Oya River in 2020–2023 was better than in previous years. However, increasing community and industrial activities can reduce water quality. This was concluded based on the prediction results of the ANN backpropagation method with a hidden layer number of 4. The prediction results for period 3 in 2023 and period 1 in 2024 are that 1) the concentrations of BOD, fecal coli, and total coli will increase and exceed quality standards, 2) COD and TSS concentrations will increase but will still be below quality standards, 3) DO and total phosphate concentrations will remain constant and still on the threshold of quality standards. The possibility of several water quality parameters increasing above the quality standards remains, so the potential for contamination of the Oya River is still high. Therefore, early prevention of river water pollution is necessary.

Keywords

• artificial neural network (ann) backpropagation
• system modeling
• prediction