Assessing the Impact of Unconventional Shale Hydrocarbon Resources on Changing US Strategy in the Middle East by Using Correlation Method

Abstract

The Arab revolutions that broke up in the Middle East in 2011 and the American inaction in stopping the chain of these revolutions and Also, imposing oil sanctions on Iran without fear of rising oil prices indicated that technological developments and increasing the volume of production from unconventional sources of shale oil and gas in the United States have challenged the importance of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf in American's economy and have led to a shift in US security policies in the region. In order to assess these changes, In this paper, the effect of the shale revolution and the expansion of oil and gas production from its unconventional hydrocarbon resources on US foreign policy in the Middle East, with an emphasis on the Persian Gulf, based on the definition of three major indicators: diplomacy, economics and military in US foreign policy and use the correlation method is evaluated. The results of the research show that as much as shale oil production has been added to US oil production, the US strategy from active balance and intervention in Middle East has changed into an offshore balance policy and so the possibility of conflicts between regional powers has increased.

Keywords

• middle east
• us
• active balance
• off shore balance
• shale oil