Modeling of Electric Vehicle Tariff Using Real-Time Elasticity Regional Pricing Within Indonesian Grid Authority Case Study: Java-Madura-Bali Provinces

Abstract

The excessive government subsidies for electricity and the growing use of Electric Vehicles (EVs) make understanding the electricity market crucial for both suppliers and consumers. This study aims to develop a time-based EV charging tariff method that ensures fair pricing for EV owners in Indonesia, while accounting for the power generation, transmission, and distribution constraints within the Java-Bali power grid. We propose a Real-Time Elasticity Pricing method, considering seven different regions, to address tariff fluctuations. The tariffs are calculated and forecasted one day ahead using Indonesia’s power generation profile, EV charging schemes, and residential EV owners’ charging behaviors during weekdays and weekends. The analysis is conducted using linear regression combined with a market elasticity approach. The results reveal that Time of Use (ToU) and Vehicle to Grid (V2G) schemes cannot follow the load hourly, which is exciting and aligns with the nature of EV charging concerning its stochastic behavior and technical specification, while the Uncontrolled (UnC) scheme is in the contrary. In average, elasticity help reduce government subsidized around 3.15% lesser for ToU scheme and around 4.15% lesser for V2G charging scheme than non elasticity. Moreover elasticity for UnC schemes, help reduce government subsidized around 27.05% higher than non elasticity. Viewing electricity consumption for EV charging in specific schemes of certain groups of hours as distinct commodities could be helpful while considering its regional location, allowing for more precise management and pricing.

Keywords

• EV charging scheme
• linear regression
• market elasticity
• real-time pricing
• regional location