Clinical Epidemiology (Mar 2018)
The trends and projections in the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in urban Shanghai: a population-based study from 1973 to 2020
Abstract
Lei Bai,1,* Zhenqiu Liu,2,3,* Qiwen Fang,2,3 Qiong Yan,4 Oumin Shi,5 Pingping Bao,6 Lina Mu,7 Xingdong Chen,8,9 Tiejun Zhang2,3 1Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai, China; 2Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; 3Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China; 4Department of Child and Maternal Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; 5Department of Neurology, Shenzhen Second People’s Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China; 6Department of Chronic Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China; 7Department of Epidemiology and Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Health Professions, State University of New York (SUNY) at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA; 8State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering and Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; 9Fudan University Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences, Taizhou, China *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: In 2012, liver cancer ranked as the fifth and eighth most common cancer in men and women, respectively, in urban Shanghai. This study aims to present the trend and projection of age-specific incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Shanghai.Methods: We extracted data of liver cancer incident cases and deaths between 1973 and 2012. An age–period–cohort model was used to analyze the data.Results: A total of 47,344 men and 18,692 women were diagnosed with liver cancer from 1973 to 2012. The overall age-standardized incidence was 26.89 and 8.89 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. Correspondingly, a total of 44,355 and 18,084 men and women died from liver cancer during this period. The overall age-standardized death rate was 25.34 per 100,000 in men and 9.39 per 100,000 in women. Between 1973 and 2012, liver cancer incidence and mortality in all age groups, except people aged 0–19 years, experienced a significant decline. Similar temporal patterns were detected in liver cancer mortality in both sexes when compared with incidence. Liver cancer incidence and mortality are expected to further decline among all age groups in 2013–2020 in both sexes, though the numbers of incident cases will remain stable.Conclusion: Incidence and mortality of liver cancer in urban Shanghai have decreased by about 40% and 50%, respectively, over the past four decades. This decline is expected to continue in the near future. However, the population is aging, which is reflected in the increasing crude rates and decreasing age-adjusted rates. Keywords: liver cancer, incidence, mortality, Shanghai
