Tropical Cyclone Track and Structure Sensitivity to Initialization in Idealized Simulations: A Preliminary Study

Abstract

In the absence of environmental steering, tropical cyclone (TC) motion largely reflects ¡§beta drift¡¨ owing to differential planetary vorticity advection by the storm¡¦s outer circulation. It is known that model physics choices (especially those relating to convection) can significantly alter these outer winds and thus the storm track. Here, semi-idealized simulations are used to explore the influence of the initialization on subsequent vortex evolution and motion. Specifically, TCs bred from a buoyant ¡§bubble¡¨ are compared to bogussed vortices having a wide variety of parameterized shapes and sizes matching observations.

Keywords

• Tropical cyclone
• Track
• Structure
• Ensemble
• Bogus