Metropolization process in the rural settlement system of the Central Chernozem region of Russia

Abstract

The Central Chernozem region of Russia has undergone significant changes in socio-demographic processes over the past half-century. The aim of this study was to establish the impact of metropolization on the demographic transformation of sparsely populated rural settlements for the Central Chernozem region and to develop a demographic forecast for 2030. The study’s goals were to (1) determine the scale of regional metropolises; (2) identify the impact of metropolization on the quantitative indicators of sparsely populated rural settlements; (3) establish trends in their transformation; and (4) compile a medium-term demographic forecast for the Central Chernozem region. The set objectives were achieved by integrating methods for spatial-temporal and comparative geographical analysis, statistical methods, and a combination of official statistics with sociological methods. Analysis of the level of urbanization of the regions in modern conditions (20th and 21st centuries) showed that, although this process was and remained below the national average, it did not prevent the formation of regional metropolises (Belgorod, Stary Oskol, Kursk, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Tambov) as an obvious outcome of urbanization processes. A regional pattern of degradation of the network of rural settlements, mainly the smallest and small in terms of population (1-25, 26-50 people), which make up over one third of all settlements in the Central Chernozem region of Russia, was determined. A stable long-term trend of growth in the number of abandoned villages and hamlets was established. Between the last two All-Russian population censuses (11 years), their number increased by 45%. The forecasting results obtained confirm the established patterns in the medium-term trend of “compression” of rural settlement around regional metropolis (with some exceptions). The medium-term demographic forecast showed that population concentration in metropolitan areas and further socio-demographic desertification in peripheral areas will continue with growing territorial differentiation. The obtained results of the study of the transformation of settlement systems of the Central Chernozem region as a result of the metropolization of regional centers can help government institutions in strategic planning of territorial development.

Keywords

• metropolization processes
• rural resettlement
• disappearing settlements
• socioeconomic development
• spatial distribution
• geographic information system
• demographic forecast