Assessment Heartworm Disease in the Canary Islands (Spain): Risk of Transmission in a Hyperendemic Area by Ecological Niche Modeling and Its Future Projection
Rodrigo Morchón,
Iván Rodríguez-Escolar,
Ricardo E. Hernández Lambraño,
José Ángel Sánchez Agudo,
José Alberto Montoya-Alonso,
Irene Serafín-Pérez,
Carolina Fernández-Serafín,
Elena Carretón
Affiliations
Rodrigo Morchón
Zoonotic Diseases and One Health GIR, Biomedical Research Institute of Salamanca—Research Center for Tropical Diseases University of Salamanca (IBSAL-CIETUS), Faculty of Pharmacy, Campus Miguel Unamuno, University of Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, Spain
Iván Rodríguez-Escolar
Zoonotic Diseases and One Health GIR, Biomedical Research Institute of Salamanca—Research Center for Tropical Diseases University of Salamanca (IBSAL-CIETUS), Faculty of Pharmacy, Campus Miguel Unamuno, University of Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, Spain
Ricardo E. Hernández Lambraño
Biodiversity, Human Diversity and Conservation Biology Research Group, Campus Miguel Unamuno, University of Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, Spain
José Ángel Sánchez Agudo
Biodiversity, Human Diversity and Conservation Biology Research Group, Campus Miguel Unamuno, University of Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, Spain
José Alberto Montoya-Alonso
Internal Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Research Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, 35001 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain
Irene Serafín-Pérez
Instituto Universitario de Enfermedades Tropicales y Salud Pública de Canarias, Universidad de La Laguna, Avda. Astrofísico Fco. Sánchez, S/N, 38203 La Laguna, Spain
Carolina Fernández-Serafín
Instituto Universitario de Enfermedades Tropicales y Salud Pública de Canarias, Universidad de La Laguna, Avda. Astrofísico Fco. Sánchez, S/N, 38203 La Laguna, Spain
Elena Carretón
Internal Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Research Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, 35001 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain
Heartworm disease is a vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by Dirofilaria immitis. The Canary Islands (Spain), geolocated close to the coast of Western Sahara, is an archipelago considered hyperendemic where the average prevalence in domestic dogs is high, heterogeneous, and non-uniform. In addition, Culex theileri has been reported as a vector of the disease on two of the most populated islands. Our aim was to develop a more accurate transmission risk model for dirofilariosis for the Canary Islands. For this purpose, we used different variables related to parasite transmission; the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex spp. was calculated using the ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of D. immitis. The resulting model was validated with the geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all islands. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. There is a risk of transmission on all islands, being high in coastal areas, moderate in midland areas, and minimal in higher altitude areas. Most of the dogs infected with D. immitis were geolocated in areas with a high risk of transmission. In 2080, the percentage of territory that will have been gained by Culex spp. is small (5.02%), although it will occur toward the midlands from coastal areas. This new model provides a high predictive power for the study of cardiopulmonary dirofilariosis in the Canary Islands, as a hyperendemic area of the disease, and can be used as a tool for its prevention and control.
