Effect of meteorological variables on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in outbreak prone districts of Rajasthan, India

Abstract

Background: Malaria is a public health problem caused by Plasmodium parasite and transmitted by anopheline mosquitoes. Arid and semi-arid regions of western India are prone to malaria outbreaks. Malaria outbreak prone districts viz. Bikaner, Barmer and Jodhpur were selected to study the effect of meteorological variables on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria outbreaks for the period of 2009–2012. Method: The data of monthly malaria cases and meteorological variables was analysed using SPSS 20v. Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to examine the strength of the relationship between meteorological variables, P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria cases. Pearson’s correlation analysis was carried out among the meteorological variables to observe the independent effect of each independent variable on the outcome. Results: Results indicate that malaria outbreaks have occurred in Bikaner and Barmer due to continuous rains for more than two months. Rainfall has shown to be an important predictor of malaria outbreaks in Rajasthan. P. vivax is more significantly correlated with rainfall, minimum temperature (P < 0.01) and less significantly with relative humidity (P < 0.05); whereas P. falciparum is significantly correlated with rainfall, relative humidity (P < 0.01) and less significantly with temperature (P < 0.05). The determination of the lag period for P. vivax is relative humidity and for P. falciparum is temperature. The lag period between malaria cases and rainfall is shorter for P. vivax than P. falciparum. Conclusion: In conclusion, the knowledge generated is not only useful to take prompt malaria control interventions but also helpful to develop better forecasting model in outbreak prone regions. Keywords: Malaria outbreak, Meteorological variables, P. vivax, P. falciparum, India