PLoS ONE (Jan 2023)

Time-dependent vaccine efficacy estimation quantified by a mathematical model.

  • Jennifer Loria,
  • Vinicius V L Albani,
  • Francisco A B Coutinho,
  • Dimas T Covas,
  • Claudio J Struchiner,
  • Jorge P Zubelli,
  • Eduardo Massad

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285466
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 18, no. 5
p. e0285466

Abstract

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In this paper we calculate the variation of the estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) due to the time-dependent force of infection resulting from the difference between the moment the Clinical Trial (CT) begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity. Using a simple mathematical model we tested the hypothesis that the time difference between the moment the CT begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity determines substantially different values for VE. We exemplify the method with the case of the VE efficacy estimation for one of the vaccines against the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.