An Agent-Based Real-Time Game Model for Forecasting the Market Penetration of Vehicles in China

Abstract

Internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs), hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs) represent tradition, high technology, energy conservation and innovation respectively. The new energy vehicles (NEVs) include PHEVs and BEVs. This study innovatively proposes an agent-based real-time game model to simulate the market penetration of vehicles in China. The advantage of the model is in accord with the product diffusion theory and synchronous with the cognition of consumers. The purchase preference is described by a hierarchical variables structure, which forms a probit model with the approximately normal distribution based on the central limit theorem. The results show that when the individual purchase of ICEs will not bring any incentive for others to purchase ICEs, the market penetration of ICEs will decrease. The development of NEVs should focus on their own competitiveness, and the interaction between the proven technology of ICEs and the rapid development of NEVs is useful for NEVs. Restricted with the narrow price range, the market penetration of HEVs will keep steady. Finally, the high interaction frequency is good for NEVs, which indicates that WeMedias will play an important role.

Keywords

• Market penetration
• real-time
• agent-based model
• probit model
• payoff matrix