Identifying socioeconomic exposure patterns and hotspots of global tropical cyclones from 1990 to 2019

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating natural hazards. Socioeconomic exposure to TCs is essential for global disaster risk assessment. This study mapped global TC hazards using TC best track data from 1990 to 2019 and the Holland wind field model. Absolute and relative exposure indices were developed, and a matrix model was used to determine the exposure hotspots of TCs. Our results show that: (1) From 1990 to 2019, the exposed GDP to TCs increased by USD 9771.5 billion, and the population increased by 570 million people, with an average annual growth rate of 3.62 % and 1.26 %, respectively. South Asia shows a significant increasing trend in both exposed GDP and the proportion of the exposed population. In terms of income levels, lower middle income countries have the fastest growth in exposed GDP and population. (2) Countries with high absolute exposure tend to be populous and economically developed, while countries with high relative exposure are mainly small island nations. The number of countries with the highest level (level V) of exposed GDP and the population is 8 and 10, respectively. Mainly located in East Asia and the Pacific. (3) From 1990 to 2019, the total area of affected cities increased by 12.94 × 104 km2. The increase in GDP and population exposure in urban areas accounted for 45.45 % and 77.53 % of the total growth in exposure, respectively. Our study contributes to understanding the dynamics of exposure characteristics in TC regions and provides an important foundation for TC risk management.

Keywords

• Tropical cyclone
• Hazard
• Global exposure
• Population
• GDP