Derivation and validation of a national multicenter mortality risk stratification model – the ExCare model: a study protocol

Abstract

Introduction: Surgical care is essential for proper management of various diseases. However, it can result in unfavorable outcomes. In order to identify patients at higher risk of complications, several risk stratification models have been developed. Ideally, these tools should be simple, reproducible, accurate, and externally validated. Unfortunately, none of the best-known risk stratification instruments have been validated in Brazil. In this sense, the Ex-Care model was developed by retrospective data analysis of surgical patients in a major Brazilian university hospital. It consists of four independent predictors easily collected in the preoperative evaluation, showing high accuracy in predicting death within 30 days after surgery. Objectives: To update and validate a Brazilian national-based model of postoperative death probability within 30 days based on the Ex-Care model. Also, to develop an application for smartphones that allows preoperative risk stratification by Ex-Care model. Methods: Ten participating centers will collect retrospective data from digital databases. Variables age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status, surgical severity (major or non-major) and nature (elective or urgent) will be evaluated as predictors for in-hospital mortality within 30 postoperative days, considered the primary outcome. Expected results: We believe that the Ex-Care model will present discriminative capacity similar to other classically used scores validated for surgical mortality prediction. Furthermore, the mobile application to be developed will provide a practical and easy-to-use tool to the professionals enrolled in perioperative care.

Keywords

• Surgical procedures
• Risk assessment
• Hospital mortality
• Validation studies
• Mobile health application