Nature Communications (May 2021)

Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models

  • Joseph Friedman,
  • Patrick Liu,
  • Christopher E. Troeger,
  • Austin Carter,
  • Robert C. Reiner,
  • Ryan M. Barber,
  • James Collins,
  • Stephen S. Lim,
  • David M. Pigott,
  • Theo Vos,
  • Simon I. Hay,
  • Christopher J. L. Murray,
  • Emmanuela Gakidou

Journal volume & issue
Vol. 12, no. 1
pp. 1 – 13


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Forecasts of COVID-19 mortality have been critical inputs into a range of policies, and decision-makers need information about their predictive performance. Here, the authors gather a panel of global epidemiological models and assess their predictive performance across time and space.