Model-Based Assessment of Energy Dependency Policies: A System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

The high and unreasonable demand for fuel in Iran, and also the excessive and irrational consumption of fuel in various sectors, including transportation along with cheap fuel for power generation plants, the lack of proper standards for fuel consumption in different sectors, has brought the high dependency on fossil fuels energy supply for Iran. This problem is a serious threat to the country's energy security, in light of the increasing trend in energy demand and in particular the energy intensity of the country's energy supply. Understanding the system structure of this dependency is the main objective of the present research. The research methodology is based on the system dynamics approach. A stock and flow model of energy dependency was developed and four scenarios have tested on it. From the comparison of the four scenarios, it can be said that the current energy dependency on is continuing to increase. Based on the results, it is recommended that the demand-side management policy and the development of renewable energy capacities reduce energy dependency and increase energy security together.

Keywords

• energy security
• fossil fuel
• renewable energy
• system dynamics