Possible Identification of Precursor ELF Signals on Recent EQs That Occurred Close to the Recording Station

Abstract

The Lithospheric–Atmospheric–Ionospheric Coupling (LAIC) mechanism stands as the leading model for the prediction of seismic activities. It consists of a cascade of physical processes that are initiated days before a major earthquake. The onset is marked by the discharge of ionized gases, such as radon, through subterranean fissures that develop in the lead-up to the quake. This discharge augments the ionization at the lower atmospheric layers, instigating disturbances that extend from the Earth’s surface to the lower ionosphere. A critical component of the LAIC sequence involves the distinctive perturbations of Extremely Low Electromagnetic Frequencies (ELF) within the Schumann Resonances (SR) spectrum of 2 to 50 Hz, detectable days ahead of the seismic event. Our study examines 10 earthquakes that transpired over a span of 3.5 months—averaging nearly three quakes monthly—which concurrently generated 45 discernible potential precursor seismic signals. Notably, each earthquake originated in Southern Greece, within a radius of 30 to 250 km from the observatory on Mount Parnon. Our research seeks to resolve two important issues. The first concerns the association between specific ELF signals and individual earthquakes—a question of significant importance in seismogenic regions like Greece, where earthquakes occur frequently. The second inquiry concerns the parameters that determine the detectability of an earthquake by a given station, including the requisite proximity and magnitude. Initial findings suggest that SR signals can be reliably linked to a particular earthquake if the observatory is situated within the earthquake’s preparatory zone. Conversely, outside this zone, the correlation becomes indeterminate. Additionally, we observe a differentiation in SR signals based on whether the earthquake took place over land or offshore. The latter category exhibits unique signal behaviors, potentially attributable to the water layers above the epicenter acting as a barrier to the ascending gases, thereby affecting the atmospheric–ionospheric ionization process.

Keywords

• Schumann resonances
• seismicity
• LAIC
• electro-seismology