Application of ARDL model for examining the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Vietnam

Abstract

The paper aims to analyze the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Vietnam during 1986 - 2019. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was used to combine with the Bound tests to determine the long-run effects and the Error Correction Model (ECM) afterward to analyze the short-run effects. The empirical results reveal the long and short-run linkages between unemployment and economic growth. Particularly, unemployment negatively impacts economic growth in both the short and long run, but there is no causal relationship between these two macro variables. Based on the research findings, some recommendations are proposed to harmonize this relationship.

Keywords

• định luật okun
• mối quan hệ
• tăng trưởng kinh tế
• thất nghiệp