Prediction of Grade Point Average (GPA) for Students at Informatics and Computer Engineering Education – Universitas Negeri Jakarta during Online Learning Using Naive Bayes Algorithm

Abstract

The transition of learning models from face-to-face to online learning has had several impacts on student learning, reflected in their academic achievements. This study aims to determine the performance of the algorithm model using data mining classification techniques in predicting the Semester Grade Point Average (GPA) of Informatics and Computer Engineering Education students, at Universitas Negeri Jakarta during online learning. The prediction employed the Naive Bayes algorithm and the dataset obtained by collecting questionnaires from 2020 and 2021 batches. The total data obtained is 155 records with 13 (thirteen) attributes in the form of 1 (one) ID attribute including NIM, 11 (eleven) regular attributes including gender, college entrance, smartphone facilities, network conditions, preferred online applications, interest in learning, learning attitudes, learning creativity, parental support, study groups, and other activities outside of lectures during online learning, and 1 (one) the label attribute namely the Semester Grade Point Average for students in 3rd and 5th semester. The evaluation of this research involved the confusion matrix and the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve. Confusion matrix resulted in an accuracy of 75%, precision of 28.33%, and recall of 26.43%. The ROC curve resulted in an AUC value of 0.679, indicating the category of poor classification. This study also applied the SMOTE data balancing technique, leading to a confusion matrix evaluation with 88.46% accuracy, 57.43% precision, and 52.14% recall. Furthermore, the ROC curve resulted in an AUC value of 0.809 which is categorized as a Good classification.

Keywords

• prediction
• data mining
• naive bayes
• online learning
• grade point average