Revista de Economie Mondială (Jul 2019)
US-CHINA TRADE WAR AND ITS POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES
Abstract
This paper sketches the recent evolution of the US-China economic relations from multidimensional co-dependency to disengagement, following the disruptive, lose-lose path of trade war and FDI screening. Through threats, large-scale tariff increases and various non-tariff measures, the clash of the two world economy giants has unrolled all along 2018, especially in its second part. The paper places the trade tensions between the two actors into the context of international production, with its global value chains and networks, highlighting the inadequacy of the policies adopted and their expected negative results. The most likely consequences of the trade war for the economies, companies and people in the US, China, the EU and South-East Asia are looked at, and the risks and opportunities for each are unveiled. The conclusions substantiate the assertion that trade wars have no winners and identify their real rationale: the scramble for economic and technological supremacy.
